According to wage growth data for May to July 2023, the state pension looks set to hit £11,501 ($14,422, €13,381) in April 2024.
This is up from £10,600 this year.
The pension triple lock is based on the highest of total wage inflation between May to June (8.5%), CPI inflation in September (announced in October) and 2.5%.
Alice Guy, head of pensions and savings at Interactive Investor, said: “The triple-lock increase is great news for millions of pensioners, providing a lifeline to many poorer households. One in eight pensioners don’t have any income in addition to the state pension and are completely dependent on the triple lock to help them cover their rising costs.
“Women are particularly likely to rely solely on the state pension, especially if they are on their own. Many have taken time out from the workplace, which makes it harder to build up a workplace pension.
“It’s important to remember that, even with the triple lock, the UK state pension is still one of the lowest in Europe. Many other countries have a state-pension system based on the amount you pay in, rather than a simple flat rate. That means UK pensioners are hugely reliant on workplace pensions to supplement their state-pension income. But not everyone has access to a workplace pension.
“Those who are long-term carers, disabled or simply self-employed often end up with the rough end of the stick when it comes to retirement incomes. Most pensioners actually receive less than the headline rate.”
Older pensioners who retired before April 2016 receive an older-style basic pension, that will only rise to £8,812 next year. Likewise, pensioners who don’t have a full national-insurance record also receive less.
‘Difficult balancing act’
Guy added: “The government has a difficult balancing act ahead, as it weighs up an increasingly expensive state pension bill, with the needs of pensioners. One option would be for the government to consider using longer-term averages, rather than short-term data to determine the triple lock.
“This would reduce the risk of the triple lock being skewed by short-term trends.
“The triple lock has successfully raised the level of the state pension by £3,158 in real terms since 2011.”