Overall confidence in the UK economy has halved in less than six months among HNWIs, according to the latest Saltus Wealth Index Report, published today (13 February).
Now in its seventh edition, UK wealth management firm Saltus surveyed 2,000 people with assets of £250,000 or more. The latest Index level has fallen by 13% to 58.2 from 66.9 when the Index was last published in August 2024, and down 10% from the 64.4 recorded a year ago.
The Index figure today represents a record low since the Saltus Wealth Index was first published, with the drop in confidence in the UK economy being the biggest driver of the fall.
Fewer than half (48%) of HNWIs now have confidence in the UK economy, a drop from 84% in August. This is the lowest level of confidence ever recorded by the Saltus Wealth Index Report, which has been tracking HNWIs’ confidence in the UK since 2021.
The Index – a measure calculated in partnership with Dr Michael Peacey of the University of Bristol – has now fallen below the previous low of 59.5 recorded shortly after the infamous Liz Truss Budget in 2022.
A third of HNWIs (33%) today say they feel ‘unconfident’, with those who say they are ‘very confident’ falling from 38% to just 19%, another all-time low. This is the highest level of negative sentiment ever recorded.
These confidence levels align with HNWIs’ views of the Labour Government, with two thirds (66%) of the 36% of respondents who voted Labour at the last General Election now saying they regret doing so.
The main reasons cited for this regret are:
• Changes to Inheritance Tax (IHT) (18%)
• Adding VAT to private school fees (18%)
• The impact on business (16%)
• Changes to tax thresholds and pensions (16%)
• Changes to the Winter Fuel Allowance (15%)
• The increase in Employer National Insurance (15%)
The vast majority (83%) of HNWIs expect the Labour Government to raise taxes further in the next 12 months, with respondents predicting Capital Gains Tax (38%), Income Tax (37%) and IHT (35%) as the most likely to be increased.
One respondent said the Labour Government will “raise any tax they can get away with”, with another adding “you just know that a Labour Government will increase the tax take where and when it can”. Others felt the Labour Government was likelier to tax by stealth in its approach, with one saying: “they won’t raise rates but will freeze Income Tax and other thresholds, which is a tax rise.” Furthermore, 47% now believe tax rises are the single biggest threat to their wealth, behind only inflation (52%) and up from 22% six months ago.
The Report also shows that HNWIs think high tax rates and a complex tax system remain the biggest barrier to wider economic growth: 43% cite this as the main issue, up from 23% before the last Budget.
Mike Stimpson, partner at wealth management firm Saltus, said: “The extent to which the confidence of high net worth individuals has collapsed demonstrates a missed opportunity for the new Government, who had high levels of support when they came to power and drove the highest levels of HNWI confidence in the UK economy we have ever recorded. Confidence is a critical component in growth, and the fact that this vitally important group of people – the wealth creators, employers and investors in the businesses of tomorrow – feel that the UK economy is not on the right track is a cause for concern.”
Dr Michael Peacey, senior lecturer, School of Economics, at the University of Bristol, said: “The decline in the Index reflects substantial shifts across several key measures and underscores a period of mounting apprehension among HNWIs about the UK’s economic prospects. There has also been a shift in how HNWIs feel about taxation in the UK, with anxieties about taxes rising further continuing to weigh heavily on HNWIs. The survey also suggests that tax changes are the primary reason that around 66% of HNWIs who voted Labour in 2024 now regret that decision.
“Looking ahead, it will be interesting to observe whether HNWIs follow through with their plans to react to the UK’s economic challenges. Such actions could have significant implications for both the domestic economy and global perceptions of the UK as a hub for wealth creators.”
The Saltus Wealth Index Report provides an in-depth study into the views of HNWIs in the UK and the Index itself provides a simple barometer of the confidence and concerns this group has relating to the UK economy and their own financial circumstances. The Index ranges between 0 and 100, with higher values describing higher confidence in (and fewer significant concerns with) the UK economy and personal finances.
It was based on 2,000 canvassed UK respondents (aged 18+) with £250k+ investable assets and carried out online in January 2025.
